Knowing What to Expect When Playing Blackjack -- Part II

As I discussed expectations in part one of this article, in the short-term (I mean playing once or occasionally as they usually say) anything can happen. I can’t say it enough times,Jay Moore is the author of The Most Powerful Blackjack Manual: A Complete Guide for Both Beginners and Experienced Players.  In the manual, Jay demonstrates how to become a part of the less than 5% of players who leave the casino as winners, and have fun doing it.  Jay is an accomplished math teacher and architect, who has played winning blackjack for over 25 years.  Jay's website is www.blackjackmanual.com  “In the short term, everything is expected!!” In the short term, anything is possible and luck is one of the deciding factors. In the long term things will happen as they have to happen, as we expect them. The losers don’t know what to expect and expect much more from this game than it has to offer. This is true generally for every casino game.

As an aside, my friends and acquaintances know that I am not the biggest fan of the slot machines. (This is perhaps because I give preference to those games where I have to do something other than just press buttons). I feel that with the slots I don’t have to do anything in comparison with all the other games. The reason why the majority of the people lose on the slots is because they expect more than what is typically expectable. What do they expect? A jackpot. Can we blame them for this? No, not at all. If by accident I should play the slots, I wouldn’t do so with any higher expectations than one can have realistically, but I also would not play slot machines with any other goal in mind but to make money. This is why I don’t play these games. Is it believable that a person might sit down, for example, with $100 and double it in 10 minutes and then leave? Most likely no. But doubling your money in 10 minutes is more than what should be expected of the games we play in a casino. However, the majority of the players don’t go to the casino for this reason. They (the losers) go to get action. They will get it – at a very high price.

Back to Blackjack. Just think about this. How many times have you gone home from the casino as a loser after playing for 5 hours? If in those 5 hours you would have made only 10 units, imagine what a big difference that would have been! After 5 hours of playing, 10 units won (and for comparison, let’s ‘just’ lose the same amount). That’s already a 20 unit difference in just one day. Even at the $10 table that is a $200 difference. How many of us can afford to lose this on a daily basis? We all know how to calculate what would happen if our unit bet were to be $100.

Dreams? Yes, you can dream. But dreamers are losers. Yes, you can play slots. Give it a shot. Try with $20 (or $50, $100 whatever your initial bet is at the table) and if you are not lucky, call off the day. $20 means $20. Do not try again.

1. If I offered you a Blackjack table where the Casino would guarantee you a constant hand of 18, would you go for it? The majority of the players would say Yes without hesitation. But let me tell you: you shouldn’t. The dealer, in 57.06 % of the cases, will have an 18 or higher card. This means in 57.06% of the cases we cannot beat the dealer, which is a lot more than 50%! This is why you should not go for a constant hand of 18. Eighteen is just not enough on average to win if the dealer does not bust.

2. How many Blackjacks can we expect? 4.8%. Yes, “only” one in every 20 hands. This is about twenty minutes of playing at an average table. And, this is what we can expect on average. Therefore, quite frequently a half an hour will go by without getting a Blackjack. Just expect it. Not too many players do.

3.   There is no way to win more hands than the dealer. Did you know that the player will win 44 out of 100 hands on average? The dealer will show an Ace or a ten value card almost 40% of the time…… and the list goes on. You can find all of these figures in my book.

From the moment that you put your expectations into place, your whole relationship to the game will change irreversibly. On average, the game fluctuates 10-20 units.  

This, of course, doesn’t mean that you will win or lose this many hands in a row. This means that the bankroll which you have at the table will grow or shrink by this amount. Doesn’t this seem like a lot? Many don’t even believe it. How else could you explain someone at the $50 table who is up, say, $700 - $800 and is not happy? They expect more than what the game has to offer. 

Believe me, 10-20 units is quite a lot. Don’t expect more. In most of the cases, don’t even expect this much. Clearly, we never know when a winning streak will end. Because of this, we will almost always lose the last few hands. (The only exception might be when after a big comeback we suddenly quit). If you are above the expected 10-20 units, be very cautious and unconditionally quit right away if you start heading south.

If you know what to expect, you will dream less but you will part from the casino disappointed on a less frequent basis.